Calculator
Safe Withdrawal Rate
Estimate how much you can withdraw from your portfolio each year without running out of money, then stress-test it against weaker return assumptions.
That is $120,000 in the first year, then rising with inflation.
Through age 92.
Used to build the stress cases below, not to simulate random markets.
On the assumed average return, over 30 years
$3,980,145
The portfolio lasts the full period and ends at this value in nominal terms. First-year withdrawal $120,000.
2 of 4 stress cases lasted the full 30 years.
Stress test
The same withdrawal plan, run against fixed return assumptions above and below your average. These are deterministic scenarios, so the same inputs always give the same answer.
| Scenario | Return used | Outcome | Ending value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Two standard deviations below average | -18.00% | Ran out in year 9 | $0 |
| One standard deviation below average | -6.00% | Ran out in year 14 | $0 |
| Assumed average return | 6.00% | Lasted 30 years | $3,980,145 |
| One standard deviation above average | 18.00% | Lasted 30 years | $301,052,129 |
What this calculator assumes
- The first-year withdrawal is a fixed share of the starting portfolio and then rises with inflation each year, regardless of how markets perform.
- Withdrawals are taken at the start of each year and the remaining balance is grown for the full year.
- The stress test uses fixed alternative return assumptions set above and below your average by the volatility you enter. It is a deterministic scenario test, not a random simulation, so the same inputs always produce the same result.
- No allowance is made for taxes, advisory fees, required minimum distributions, or spending that changes over the course of retirement.
- A constant return path cannot capture sequence-of-returns risk, which is the risk that poor early returns do lasting damage even when the long-run average is fine.
This tool produces estimates for planning discussion only. It is not investment, tax, or legal advice, it does not account for your full situation, and it is not a projection of actual results. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed.
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